It is the million euro question, reports financial website negociosonline. Will Portugal finally exit its “rubbish” category in terms of market ratings when Moody’s, S&P and Fitch turn their attention this way later this month?
According to director of strategy at Rabobank Richard McGuire it is not very likely, but if any changes are in the pipeline, they will come from Fitch – which is the least positive and optimistic over Portugal’s financial buoyancy.
Due to pronounce on September 25, Fitch currently has Portugal pegged one place below “investment” level – a rating it has maintained since last year.
With growth, public debt and the elections still “unknowns”, McGuire says it is much more likely that the agencies will sit it out until after the elections on October 4.
“We’re expecting that each agency to maintain its financial ratings for Portugal but understand the risk of revision upwards by Fitch is the most balanced”.
Fitch is said to have aligned itself much more to forecasts made by the EC, which has consistently warned that Portugal’s own forecasts for growth and recovery are inflated.