In the UK, speculation is growing about when interest rates will finally rise. Here in Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has made a historic move in the opposite direction and introduced negative interest rates.
At its meeting on June 5, the ECB unanimously voted to cut its deposit interest rate from 0% to -0.1% – the first time a main central bank moved interest rates into negative territory.
This was part of a package to boost economic growth and add more liquidity to the markets. The main interest rate was also cut from 0.25% to 0.15% (effectively zero) and €400 billion of cheap loans announced for Eurozone banks to boost lending.
ECB President, Mario Draghi, told reporters “Now we are in a completely different world” and said they will act swiftly with further monetary policy easing if required.
Negative interest rate
Commercial banks keep funds with their central bank for safe keeping. Normally deposits above the reserves they are required to keep earn interest at the deposit interest rate set by the central bank.
However, from June 11, European banks are being charged 0.1% to park money with the ECB.
The idea is that since it is now costly to leave money there, commercial banks will opt to lend the money instead. This would give consumers and businesses more spending power, helping spur economic growth and boost confidence.
This was a bold move by the ECB – it has not been tried by the Bank of England, US Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan. The ECB hopes it will lift inflation, therefore avoiding deflation, while encouraging lending in the weaker peripheral states.
Another benefit is that the measure could weaken the Euro. Negative interest rates could make it less attractive for foreign investors to park money in the Eurozone, causing the single currency to fall. This would help Eurozone exporters compete internationally, since a weaker Euro would make their exports cheaper for non-Euro purchasers, and make imports more expensive, so less attractive and increasing demand for local producers.
Denmark tried this tactic in 2012. The negative interest rate did lower the value of the Krone, though the Danish Banking Association said it hit profits.
This negative interest rate is separate from the main financing rate used to set the interest rates banks offer their customers – though that is now a paltry 0.15%. Nonetheless, your interest rate may still be affected. Banks could pass on the costs to their customers to reduce the effect it has on their profitability. While they may not explicitly charge you a negative rate, they could pay no interest at all and/or charge a fee for maintaining your account.
The ECB also launched a €400 billion cheap-loan scheme for businesses, which it hopes will lead to a surge in lending.
Under the new Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), banks can borrow €400 billion for four years at near zero interest rates, provided they lend it to the real economy, such as to small and medium businesses (but excluding mortgage lending). The more they lend, the more they can borrow cheaply from the central bank.
Mr Draghi showed willingness to take further action if necessary – “If need be, we are not finished here” – and opened the door for quantitative easing, where the bank buys assets, similar to what we saw in the UK and US, saying it will intensify its preparatory work related to the outright purchases in the market.
Markets broadly welcomed the news. Shares in the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 4%, almost reaching a six-year closing high. Germany’s Xetra Dax 30 breached 10,000 points for the first time, while in Paris, the Cac 40 was up 0.8% following the comments.
These initiatives and comments show that Mr Draghi and the ECB are prepared to take aggressive action to achieve their objectives. This will also boost confidence and, judging by market responses so far, the financial markets have indeed become more confident.
Negative interest rates have not been tried and tested on this scale. It is an attractive theory, but it will be some time before we see how it worked in practice.
If you have large deposits in a European bank, consider whether your bank is offering you unrewarded risk. The risk of institutional failure is one we should not ignore, although it has diminished over the past couple of years, and if your interest rates are low you are exposed to the risk while receiving none of the reward. You should consider the risk/return characteristics of cash the same as you would with other assets like shares and property. You need a clear and objective assessment of your attitude to risk to establish the savings and investment strategy that suits you best, and should take professional guidance on this.
By Gavin Scott
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Gavin Scott, Senior Partner of Blevins Franks, has been advising expatriates on all aspects of their financial planning for more than 20 years. He has represented Blevins Franks in the Algarve since 2000. Gavin holds the Diploma for Financial Advisers. | www.blevinsfranks.com